Polling, Approval Ratings, and Forecasting the Election

10 June 2020 - #MAGAanalysis Polling, Approval Ratings, and Forecasting the Election Common Sense America still exists, believe it or not. The blatant condescension that the Left employs with its insulting Identity Politics is simply failing, yet again, all over again. Amen.

2) If you know me at all, you know I would love nothing more than to dive into every number of the Rasmussen poll that Shafer tweeted out. I love numbers. And while I'm also tempted to preach at you that you should too, I'll only say, please check out the poll for yourself. 3) Our job today is to dive deeper, deep beneath the numbers. Before we do, you have to let me walk you through two technical terms, one of which is the term Technical! They are: 1) Technical Analysis 2) Fundamental Analysis 4) Let's really keep it simple. Technical Analysis is simply all about the numbers, themselves. We technical analysts - and I proudly claim to be just such myself - ADORE both numbers and more than anything else...CHARTS!!!

5) Okay, this part will be complicated. You're going to have to ask yourself some painful questions. Do you love numbers, and if not, why not? And numbers show up in the following strange list of three weaknesses: 1) Illiteracy 2) Innumeracy 3) Illfiguracy

6) Illiteracy is the most familiar. Technically, it means you can't read, and if that's you case, someone must be reading this out loud to you. More fundamentally - yes, we'll get to Fundamental Analysis shortly! - reading must empower you to think about your life.

7) Illiteracy ties directly to innumeracy. When reading any numbers, when calculating, you must be able to convert the numbers to words. In school we called these Story Problems. But, they weren't taught to us the right way. Allow me to illustrate...

8) Do black people support @realDonaldTrump or not? That is a Story Problem. Rasmussen's numbers indicate they do. But, what does that mean? In future analyses, we'll walk through the exact numbers, to the degree we can ascertain them. But, Rasmussen's numbers right now, mean...

9) Are you ready? Ready Freddy? If Rasmussen's numbers are correct, the election is already signed, sealed and delivered for Trump. If 43% of the black voters turn out for Trump, the Democrats have NO CHANCE of winning. Please mind, I am NOT calling the election right now.

10) Note, I'm really not using numbers very much. The only one I used was 43%. Let's turn that into English. Forty Three Percent. Follow it out. Numbers. Words. They have to be able to go back and forth. Illiteracy. Innumeracy. They tie to each other.

11) Illfiguracy? Who uses, hell, who finds words like that? You can believe me when I tell you, I was stunned to discover that such a word even existed. It means the inability to interpret a graph, a chart, a figure as in a drawn figure. Do bar charts speak to you?

12) Technical Analysts like me are far prouder of our ability to create informative charts than we're allowed to state in courteous public discourse. We have big egos. We've learned that normal people don't like that. We're not normal people.

13) We are figurate. Yes, that's a word. We are prouder of our figuracy than you are of your literacy. Ha! Wait, weren't we supposed to be talking about black people supporting Trump? Yeah, and we will return, I promise! I just need you to really think about the meaning of the...

14) NUMBERS. I really need you to think about the meaning of the numbers. And that is the definition of... Fundamental Analysis It's not about the numbers, themselves, its about their meaning. 15) Fundamental Analysts - and I am proud to claim my rank amongst us - watch the numbers as tightly as the Technical Analysts do. We are UP on the numbers. But, we're NEVER satisfied with the numbers alone. Our most basic, our fundamental question is: WHY?

16) Why? What if Rasmussen's numbers regarding black support of Trump are correct? Why might that number, that polled support of Trump, be true? If it is! I do NOT stand behind Rasmussen's numbers. I like Rasmussen. A lot. But you will not find me drawing their numbers' charts.

17) So, we need another term here: hypothetical. You likely know what that word means, but we're going to break it down. In Greek, hype means under, and hyper means over. The term thetical simply implies theory. A hypothesis is not yet a full theory. It's just a guess.

18) So, just guessing, we ask, what if? The greatest hypothetical questions ALWAYS begin with the words: WHAT IF? So, what if? What if Rasumussen's numbers are correct? What if?

19) I say again, if Rasmussen's numbers are correct, the election has already been won. As I promised, we'll do the math, later. Just hear me. No Democrat can win the Presidency with less than 60% of the black vote. It is the single most important Democrat bloc.

20) While I absolutely ADORE the numbers, I am haunted, fundamentally haunted by the question why. Why? Hypothetically assuming Rasmussen's numbers to be correct... Why? Why might 43% of black voters favor Trump? Why?

21) Bill Clinton is Joe Biden's father, politically speaking. Bill enjoyed the right of the 90's bull market, so in his 1996 reelection he could claim...it's the economy, stupid! It's the economy. We'll come back to "I feel your pain." Bill won reelection due to the economy.

22) Our first answer to the question why, for Trump and his support amongst the black vote, is... It's the economy, stupid. Now, we must divert again. I'd apologize, but it's not my fault. China.

23) China, and the greatest American failure. In 1789, we ratified a Constitution that enshrined slavery as its pivotal tactical requirement. We won't analyze it again, today, but if you're not aware - numerically - of the evil 3/5ths ratio from 1789, you have to research it.

24) Trust me. Southern slave owners had to have adequate representation in the House of Representatives in Congress. If they were locked out, they would NOT ratify the Constitution. So, what to do?

25) Here's what we decided, we America, we the Land of the Free, the land of All Men Are Created Equal, we decided to enshrine slavery itself right into our Constitution. Here's how it worked. For every 5 slaves a Southern Gentlemen owned, he was granted 3 additonal votes.

26) Please be clear. This, the 3/5ths rule, was the greatest evil, the greatest failure in all of American history. Yet, I do not stand in judgment over it. Why not? Without it, you may rest assured, we would NOT have completed our founding as a nation. We would not exist.

27) This is the great reason why. Black people may not know the history or the theory here, in general. But they're NOT stupid. They know that there was slavery. They know we had a Civil War. They know that 650,000 or so Americans died. They know about Lincoln.

28) They know about Martin Luther King Jr. They know about Civil Rights. They know that Jefferson's creed about the equality of all men met King's dream about the color of a man's character. They know. You can't fool them. They're NOT stupid.

29) So why might they support Trump? It's the economy, stupid. Trump brought more jobs to America in the first 3 years of his administration than any other President in American history. Deny that fact.

30) And obviously, not just more jobs to America. More jobs to black people, hispanics, women, and every other minority group you might imagine. He lowered American unemployment as no other president ever has. He did that. Black people know he did that.

31) But then, Coronavirus! And then, George Floyd's execution by police. But then... Protests. But then... Rioting, looting, arson, and destruction. America burns.

32) Black people love the law. Black people are Americans. Black people are equal to white people. White people may have advantages, okay. But ask any good white person you know, do you enjoy your advantages over black people? Guess what they'll say.

33) Is there systemic racism? Yeah, there is. It exists. It doesn't not exist. There are racist assholes in power, and they enjoy the support of their powerful positions. It exists. Does it define America? You have to be kidding. We're the least racist nation on earth.

34) We are NOT defined by our worser demons. We are defined by our better angels. Our better angels read the Declaration of Independence literally. All men, all humans to include women - they had to fight for their franchise and win the vote, too! - all humans are created EQUAL.

35) I have to mention my friend, my teacher and hero, @shestokas. He's the one who explained to me that the American story is not defined by Jefferson's hypocrisy as a slave owner. He explained to me that the story of Lincoln's 13th Amendment is America's story.

36) If you go from Lincoln's 13th Amendment, through MLK's dream, to Obama's election, you see the story of America. All men are created equal. That is who we are. And then there's Trump.

37) If you listen to the Left, Trump is a racist. If you listen to Rasmussen, black people know he's not. Now that is Fundamental Analysis.

38) Not Chinese Coronavirus, nor the Left's looting and burning can wipe out the true intelligence of the black community as a community. If Rasmussen is right, they have understood who's their friend, and who isn't.

39) Come burn down their stores in their neighborhoods? You're not their friend. Claim that black lives matter, and then don't give a hoot about their lives? They see right through you. They know the truth.

40) If I'm right, in analyzing Rasmussen's numbers, Biden cannot fool the black people, and cannot win the election. We'll see if Rasmussen is right, and if my analysis holds. We'll see.

Thread ends at #40.

P.S. Whoops! I never came back to "I feel your pain." Trump trumps it. I solve your problems. P.P.S. I also never got back to China. Simply, the center of gravity for America's Left relocated from Moscow to Beijing at the fall of the USSR. I absolutely see China's hand behind the organized efforts to burn America following Floyd's execution. More on that another time.