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Pasquale Scopelliti

False Positive

10 March 2020 - #MAGAAnalysis Coronavirus #KeepCalmBuyStocks Well, well, the entire world seems to have realized that we have a growingly strong buying signal. Amazing!

2) Here's the key quote about yesterday: "Stock markets usually welcome lower energy costs for consumers and businesses. But the decline cuts into revenue for producers, including the United States. And the abrupt drop, coming amid virus fears, rattled investors."


3) Talk about stinkin' thinkin'. As if America needed the revenues of high priced oil. Come on, folks. We have the largest, strongest economy, not only in the world today, but in all of world history. No one can count that high. Our economic might is vast beyond counting.


4) Yesterday, my wonderful and brilliant friend @JonStancik created this delightful hashtag: #KeepCalmBuyEnergyStocks I won't let the cat out of the bag, but you might guess that he works in a certain sector of our economy.


5) The one thing, oh my, above and beyond all else, that the MSM and the Democrats must NEVER acknowledge, is @realDonaldTrump's steady hand of leadership. If the Coronavirus was the doomsday event they're purporting it to be, even he couldn't lead us through.


6) It's being reported that Coronavirus has peaked in China, and is now declining. If that's correct, then my analysis about China using it as a weapon of economic warfare is also weakened. Perhaps it just happened to them, and I give them too much credit for evil genius.


7) The term for such a thing is a false positive. That is, if you have a theory, and you have data that supports it even when your theory is wrong, you're collecting false positives. This is almost the result of what is called confirmation bias.


8) We've discussed the dialectical method of analysis, where one must always propose the opposite of one's own most favored theories. If I am wrong about the Chinese government's evil plan, then it's on me to build a counter-theory against my own position.


9) There's also this crazy thing called Occam's Razor. It cuts through complexity, hunting for simplicity, and proposes that the simplest answer always has the advantage of probability. Or, the least complex answer is the one most likely to be right.


10) So, for a counter-theory here, perhaps China just suffered from this thing, and of course - no getting around this - as a Communist government, typically did all the wrong things at first, intensifying the damage as it went. Communism is inimical to truth.


11) In this counter-theory we may collect the well-known data that Trump and team offered early on to help out in any way that they might, and China refused that help. We have the strongest public health and epidemiological capabilities on earth. It was idiotic to not accept.


12) At any rate, theory vs counter-theory no matter, we must turn to our own part of this great drama. Our part is that we must be strong. I've shared recently, both the facts that I am a severe diabetic and also, that I have a wonderful immune system. I never get colds or flus.


13) My immune system is - and I know precisely how I made it this way - very strong. Think about that, please. How strong or weak is your immune system? It is easy to tell. How often do you get colds or flus? If often, your system is weak. Simple, right?


14) Importantly, my immune system was hellaciously weak up until I was 35. I know, because twice per year, typically, I was down for the count with raging bronchitis for a weak or two, every year of my life till then. In fact, at age 30, I spent 6 months with walking pneumonia.



15) Coming off of that seriously life threatening period, I knew immediately what the answer was. I had never exercised. Not never, really. Just, any program I ever started ended sooner rather than later and the shame of failure was too much for my weak ego. So, I'd just quit.


16) I didn't get started at age 30, because I knew I didn't know how to do it, how to start and sustain proper exercise. It took me five more years to break the code. Once I found it, it was so simple. I realized my goal was NOT to start and never quit. Rather...


17) Rather, my goal was to reduce the period of time between exercise regimens. What I had to do, at the very moment of commencing a new commitment, was forgive myself in advance for the coming failure. The commitment could not merely be to the new program.


18) The commitment had to include self-forgiveness when the program failed (when I quit), and include the second, yet most important dedication, to only fall off the wagon for the shortest period of time possible. That commitment was to getting started back up again.


19) I'll never forget noticing, at age 40, that I couldn't remember the last time I had a cold or a flu, let alone another bout of severe bronchitis or pneumonia. I was utterly shocked. As you can tell, I still kind of am. I guess I better tell you a bit more about my diabetes.


20) When my doctors cleared me out of ICU after 3 days when they saved my life, and in the coming weeks, they told me that they were shocked I lived. I was the most severe presenting case of Type 2 Diabetes they'd ever seen. After going over all the facts, they offered a theory.


21) What had saved my life, they told me, was the shocking strength of my immune system. It was my daily exercise regimen that got me through. No, not when I was in the hospital, but the fact of my immune system's strength due to successful exercise. Knock me over with a feather.


22) One last point on that. The core of my exercise, that I finally found around age 38, was practicing swordsmanship every day. It's a perfect form of exercise. But there's one additional key. From then till now, I'm not muscular, or athletically fit. One day I will be.


23) I have never, so far, built what are called attributes, strength, speed, that sort of thing. I don't have strong resistance bearing capability. I've always had endurance, but that's it, and at slow, gentle workloads at that. I have learned to be gentle with myself.


24) Having mastered the art of gentle exercise, that is where my immune strength comes from. As I address the remaining obstacles, I dream one day to add progressive athletic fitness to my goal set. Not today. Not tomorrow, but one day. Okay, all done on that...


25) I hope I never lost you in all that personal storytelling, but I also hope you can see the connection to today's Coronavirus analysis. As I said, we must all be strong. And, of all the strengths you want, the most important is winning a strong immune system.


26) As we continue, we'll end up spending a fair amount of time working together on the following internal system of spiritual strength. The body is nothing other than the physical manifestation of your soul. I'll go fast today, but we'll return to this many times.


27) There is an ancient model of what it is to be a human. Those who study should remember something like: Thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy mind, and heart, and soul, and with all thy might. As I've shared, I am not a believer, but I am a Bible scholar.


28) In the years since I left my youth's religion, I've discovered that most spiritual traditions throughout history have employed a similar map. Look at in its list form: 1) Head 2) Heart 3) Soul 4) Might


29) You have thoughts in your head, emotions in your heart. In your soul, you have your identity, your true beliefs, your life story, your destiny, and most important of all...it is there you make true decisions. When these three align, you are unstoppably mighty.


30 My friends, America is stronger today than at any time in my entire life, and here's why. @realDonaldTrump leads us to strength in all four areas. In our next conversation, we'll pick up right there. For today, be of great cheer and good heart. We have this. We are strong.

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