Confirmation Bias

1) The case for for #MAGA social media leadership transformation. In a word, we're not there yet. Me? I can't let go of losing the House in 2018. Yes, we increased both Senate control and number of MAGA representatives in both houses. Yet...

2) There's just no letting go of our failure, for me. No, I do NOT predict failure in 2020, of course not. Yet, I truly fear it. I always predict victory, it's a principle with me. I do, however, offer strong opposition to my own calls.

3) The name of my internal enemy is "confirmation bias." So, after I propose something - we're going to win in 2020, for example - I immediately turn to its opposite, and offer my hope it's opposition - we're going to lose the House, the Senate, the Oval Office in 2020, etc.

4) Please be clear, not only do i NOT predict we're going to lose, I both predict we're going to win, and dedicate myself with all I am to that very victory. Goodness, my wife @KateScopelliti and I wrote a book on this topic! amazon.com/America-First-…

5) Yet the topic of social media power remains, both a great strength and a tremendous weakness in my judgement, here in our #MAGA movement. as to the strength, my great teacher is @TamaraLeigh_llc. Unlike Tamara, I was not involved in the social media aspect of 2016. 6) I actually mostly just suffered via social media back then. My small family business had been employing social media - WITH NO POLITICAL discussions whatsoever - previously. I won't burden you with how bad a business decision it was to go political in social media! 7) But Tamara taught me, in the time since we won - that the reach of our social media presence was so important a factor in winning. It is my theory in response to Tamara's teaching, that this is a huge part of why the tech firms have targeted us so viciously.

8) Another teacher, my great friend @theantiantifa, informs me that our humor, our art, and our creativity in such things as fantastic memes was also a critical part of our social media victory.

9) Returning to our recent defeat, however, we must recognize that 2016's conditions will never return. The field of fight has shifted and we lost. And what we lost was both less necessary as a defeat, and far more important than we have yet come fully to terms with.

10) But first, what didn't we lose? We gain #MAGA representatives, that's good. We increased Republican control over the Senate, and increased our MAGA presence there as well. It is important that we crow about these victories and reinforce their impact. Yet...

11) Yet, there's simply no way to calculate the true meaning of our failure. Oh, and we MUST be clear. POTUS worked harder than any previous President in the midterms, and within his reach, he was massively victorious. His rallies rally us, and lead to victory.

12) So there can be no question, it is us who lost, NOT him. Why is this so significant? Certainly the tone of the coming two years will be terrible as a result. And if the other side is able to further discourage us, we'll fail to show up in 2020 in adequate numbers to win.

13) If you allow a failure - an unnecessary failure - to occur, then your likelihood of following the first failure up with a second catapults. Nothing wins like success. Nothing loses like defeat. Once defeated, there is only one factor that can lead to the next victory.

14) Analysis. Analysis, lesson acquisition, and new action. We analyze our failures in order to learn how to win, in order to discover the changes we require in order to win. That is what I propose. 15) And here's my own offering for today. We must put social media to work in a new way. We can't just reach out and hope for the good. Rather, we need to actually organize. Like a good captain in war, we must keep track of our bullets - in our case, our ballets.

16) This means we need to build our power over the data, down to the district level. What we won in 2016 at the national level, we must defend and advance in 2020 at the local level. Where Trump rallied us then, and will again, we must also rally ourselves.

17) Here's a simple example. Who has a list of all the locations candidate Trump rallied in 2016? Let's get that list and post it. Then, for a simple method, let's assume the exact same locations for 2020 and start organizing our own rallies in other locations nearby.

18) Do you see the method? It's simply us beginning to take responsibility for rallying ourselves in addition to @realDonaldTrump doing it for us! So also I urge for our social media work.

19) There are many missions for our social media power. Among them all, I urge the following key target. What is the ratio between agreement and action? I propose that in our recent defeat, there will millions more who agreed with our message than who took action to vote.

20) I don't mean just squeaking over the victory line by the skin of our teeth, either. I mean the sort of overwhelming margins for victory that makes election night TV watching almost boring. We need to know BEFORE that night that we have marshaled the forces of victory.

21) It is here where I envision our social media power - properly organized between now and 2020 - making all the difference. But let me say this another way. I believe we require a new model of leadership in the #MAGA world.

22) I believe we require leaders to step forward over small groups, where friendship and agreement get converted into certain sure action. We need to scale this leadership. We need to train it and serve and support it. And no, we MUST NOT turn to the Republican Party either.

23) We must grow ourselves up, grass roots, from the ground up. I plan to pull together documents and guidance in my own voice, and plan to make all that available between now and then. But, I'm just one voice. We need a great chorus of new ideas and energy. Leadership.

24) The core strategic principle is this. We know we have sufficient agreement, already. We win the issues. But, we do NOT know that we're going to have sufficient action. Thus, leadership can easily be defined as building - and counting - that correlation.

25) But, you ask, what about converting those who disagree? Wonderful question, and so much fun to do! It, however, is not, I believe, how we'll win nor will it account for our failure should we lose. Therefore, that's a different topic.

26) What about those who are tempted to agree with us, but remain still on the fence? Or those who agree with our movement but for whatever reason are not fond of our leader? These are important to us, and can be reached if we build our social media power. Again, leadership!

27) So where will this leadership actually occur? I propose it is actually most powerful in small groups, such as in can be so easily organized in Twitter DM rooms. There are many other media where such groups can coalesce and thrive. In all cases, leadership will be necessary.

28) The greatest task of leadership is to set sight on victory, and organize the action required to ensure it. District by district, town by town, vote by vote. Can we have that many #MAGA mission leaders? I say yes! What do you say? End.