13 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Twenty First Analysis

13 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis For those paying careful attention to my charts, you'll note that I've chosen to use Biden's support line, and Trump's resistance in laying out today's data. This shows the same data in a slightly different light.

2) Before we talk about that, let's look at each of the candidate's charts first.

3) You have to be careful with how you observe. When placed side by side, due to the scale for each image, it makes them look far closer to each other than the Dornsife numbers indicate. It's okay to look at them side by side, but please remember the scale differences.

3) Qualifiers in mind, the texture and feel of the two formations are starting to speak a bit more loudly. Don't know if these forms will soon change or if they'll continue. What I mapped out today for each was its possible continuation.

4) My ambivalence over the truth of Dornsife's numbers this year is wearing on me, and I can feel that when I do my analysis. By the way, I do NOT at the moment, plan to do a Dornsife analysis every day going forward. I will keep my eye on it, and decide randomly.

5) I am fighting my emotions. What if these Dornsife numbers really do reflect America, today? If they do, Trump is going to have to pull a strategic rabbit out of his hat, and completely alter the dynamic of the race. When current trends are projected, Biden's still on top.

6) I do have one suggestion. Let the COVID thing spin itself out. Take the heat and don't come back swinging too hard. This is one to NOT infuse your fighting spirit into. It's more of a let it go thing. Let the Democrats have this tool, and let them use it. Don't buy in.

7) For Team Biden, I do say kudos. You're clarifying your attack, and gaining in defining him, and thereby taking the dominant position from which you may attack further. Also, great work on timing your COVID message with Woodward's book release.

8) As always I caution against any one strategy, alone, and of course against overconfidence. But underconfidence can be deadly too. So, be policy for you is to keep up the COVID attack, and try to pull Trump into a response mode. You want him angry, and not thinking clearly.

9) Last point, one spear is good, two spears are better. You have to be careful though, it needs to penetrate. With all your massive assets, a two spear approach would give you what you need, ONLY if it is the right second spear. I honestly don't know what that might be.

10) Democratic counsel ended at #9. We turn now the different light that today's numbers' presentation shines. Let's put that chart back up again, here. Here's what I see, or should I say smell? I still smell a rat, friends, and I don't like it.

11) I see Biden's support line tracking at almost a perfect parallel to the Insignificance Range's (IR) high. Trump's support, going as it is, will never cross into the IR's lower limit. If Trump doesn't break to the down side of his support, that support is also parallel...ish.

12) Try to picture the lower limit of the IR running gently upward from 43 to about 44.5 or so as you look again at Trump's chart for today. Tell you what. I'm going to go draw another chart to represent that for you, clearly...

13) Look slowly. Trump's support line is easy to read on the bottom. His resistance line intersects with the IR projection around 28 September. Ah, but the IR line and his support line do NOT meet by 3 November. Linger with that.

14) And right now, Dornsife has Trump playing with his support line, no where near his resistance line, and very likely to break support, dropping out this channel and building a new downward formation. Again, go slowly and try to imagine the data rolling in, and forward.

15) If all of that is accurate it means this. The election was over the moment Dornsife started tracking data. Biden was over the high limit of the IR line, from day 1 forward, and Trump below it from day 1 forward as well. Looking at all this, it was over before it started.

16) So, move along folks. There's really nothing here to watch. Biden is a foregone conclusion, never in dispute in any way. Hell, if you're a Trump supporter, you might not even need to vote at all, why waste your time. That's the rat I'm smelling.

17) If next week goes well, BTL will be able to start posting real data, and making our own projections. Understand, I won't believe in my own data methods or projections until they have been severely tested. You will be a part of that testing, as from go moment, we will publish.

18) Before I let go, today, I have to restate my current theory of skepticism. Dornsife has changed almost every changeable feature, without simply having changed everything. My sad theory is that the LA Times forced these changes to support their agenda, not to find truth.

19) If I end up believing my theory, I'll change its category to that of proposition. I'm not 100% there yet, but this keeping all the data outside the Insignificance Area - if my theory is right - simply stinks to high heaven. I'll say it again, I want to be wrong. Sincerely.

20) In the meantime, by all means, please head over to our poll and take it. And introduce it to everyone you know. If we can build a truly honest poll, that will absolutely matter. Please help us, and head over there right now!

Thread ends at #20.

12 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Twentieth Analysis

12 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis 6:00 And Still No Published Data - 3 Hours Late I'm pushing my memory, and while it may have happened in 2016, I don't recall Dornsife missing their 3:00 AM EST deadline. At least NOT by 3 hours! election.usc.edu

2) Here's how they state their practice: "The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week." Midnight in California, is 3:00 AM here on the East Coast. The term "just after" is loose, understandably so. But 3 hours is not an insignificant period of time.

3) Obviously, I may only speculate as to the cause. That said, I rather have to believe they're recalibrating something. An anomaly, a glitch in their calculations, the data not looking right, something. I do it all the time myself. I input the data, then I look at the chart.

4) The old idea that computers can't make mistakes is long, long past its sell-by date. Sure, I input my own data, but that's only because I'm not a programmer. Programming remains a human, error-riddled art too. So, you always have to check the output, carefully.

5) But by the time you're 3 hours late on a deadline, the least you could do would be to post a notification. I know, people often don't do things like that, but it's a shame. We all should. I'll keep checking through the day, and soon as they update I'll chart it and report.

Thread ends - for now - at #5.

6) I wrongly thought, idiot me, that I'd head back to bed for a bit more Saturday morning sleep. Alas. It was @KateScopelliti's comment yesterday that's been haunting me. She said, "6% margin for error?", after she glanced at this chart.

7) So, while Dornsife has still NOT published its daily data 3:40 minutes late now, I went and looked at the actual numbers of their margin. It looks to be above 5, but less that 5.5%. So, I decided to just round it down to 5%. And epiphany, check these numbers out!

8) Dornsife's last number for Biden was 52.69%. It's last for Trump, 41.08. Now, being a margin for error, what if it applied both ways? Could it be that Biden's number is more like 47.69%? Could it be that Trump's number is more like 46.08%? A margin for error allows each.

9) If one uses the worst case scenario approach, attacking Dornsife's integrity, one can see how Trump might, once again, be absolutely ahead of Biden, but they, like all the other outfits out there, are attempting to hide the truth, while pretending to provide the truth.

10) Linger with me on the topic of margins of error. Statistics is, by definition, NOT a precise art. It deals in probabilities, not certainties. It is, in that sense, the precise opposite of simple math. 2 + 2 = 4. That's simple math. Or, 100% vs 0%. Also simple math.

11) I always bristle when I see the normal 3, or 3.5% margin of error most polls claim. It sounds like they 97, or 96.5% sure they're right. It means NOTHING of the kind. The only thing it applies to is the numbers, the way they calculate their data.

12) What polling should do, is hold itself to account. Instead of a margin of error, it should publish a margin of confidence, if it must. My own preferred method is just to offer a prediction, and let it be right or wrong. I reject the entire margin of error concept, completely.

13) But it was Kate's observation that Dornsife is playing with a 5 - 6% margin for error. The moment she said that, I immediately felt profound regret. I watched their margin for error area in 2016, but never quite took it as far as her glancing analysis, yesterday.

14) I do cut myself this slack. Yesterday was the first time I ever charted it, and showed my chart to Kate. I should have charted it back in 2016, but didn't. Oh well. So it goes.

15) We just passed the 4 hours late mark, still no data update. Clearly, there are some big whigs in a meeting somewhere in Southern California, and they're obviously NOT releasing the update. Isn't that interesting? It sure is to me.

Thread ends - for now - at #15.

I just saw today's data come in!!! I'll graph it and return. Man do I love this stuff...

16) I'll speak to the 6 hours late below. Let's focus first on the overall chart here, and see how Dornsife represents the current state of the campaign.

17) Clearly, the Biden lead continues. We'll look at his, as well as Trump's individual charts shortly. I've added a new feature to my handwritten comments, the Insignificance Area's actual percentage. Today's, as you can see, was 5.26%. Who knew? I'll be studying this.

18) So, what's up with these 6 hours? On its face, it looks hinky. One has to imagine the computing power an outfit like Dornsife has at its ready disposal. We know their formulas were set in place long before the current campaign began. So, why be 6 hours late?

19) One might easily blame millenials. Imagine the team, they're in Southern California. And, well, the guy who's supposed to hit the "publish data" button really had a great party last night. He doesn't show up at midnight, right?

20) On a more serious note, being 6 hours late with data published daily, shows, if not lack of seriousness alone, very possibly worse. Unhappiness with the results and the need to massage the data. This is a blistering attack. I cannot prove it, and am loathe to make it.

21) Okay, I'm being too nice to myself. I confess. I kind of enjoy making it. Alright, I really enjoy it. And here's why. Back on 20 August, and since, I've been calling Dornsife out and am everything but to the point of rejecting their numbers this year. And then, 6 hours late?

22) You have to let me have my fun. Here I go. I picture this. There's a bunch of suits (but they're in their pajamas) meeting with a crew of scientists from midnight till 6:00 AM PST. The scientists have printouts of my analyses, and they're saying, we told you about this guy!

23) The yawning pajama wearing suits are saying, so what? Who cares? All we need is data showing how GIGANTIC Biden's lead is. What's the problem? Just add a few points to Biden's numbers and we're there. Okay? It's not quite as easy as that, the millenial scientists say.

24) It's 5:30 AM PST and some really big muckety muck comes in and says, show me the numbers. He glances. He says, here are the results. Writes them down. Heads back to his Belair mansion furious over having had to drive all the way over to USC.

25) You know, I've never been in those meetings. I honestly have no real idea how they run. I can only imagine. But you can tell, I'm not impressed by data that suddenly shows up, 6 hours late. You shouldn't be either. And one last point. No explanation? You have to be kidding.

26) Yesterday, I published honest guidance for the Biden campaign's consideration. I do not mess around about such things. Counsel is counsel, and I meant it. I won't do that again today, for them. But, let's look at his Dornsife numbers.

27) Lingering right there at his resistance line, one imagines that the COVID tapes from Woodward might be able to help us punch up above that line soon. If I'm a Biden campaign guy, I'm going, AWESOME! We hold out near our top, while Trump drops lower. We're cool!

28) At a deeper, more strategic level, if I believe these numbers, I'm going, this election is ours to lose. We have this. Our challenge now is simply to not mess up. America is done with Trump. MAGA is over. The Biden era is about to begin. No kidding, that's what I'd feel.

29) Now let's turn to Dornsife's Trump numbers.

30) If I'm the new guy, or one of the new guy's new guys, my heart is dropping right now. Who's this new guy? And what happened to Parscale? How did Parscale fall from grace? It's all so confusing. If I'm on Team Trump, and I believe these numbers, I'm not happy.

31) Okay, no need to overreact. It's just a tiny blip beneath what was a steep support line anyway. Support lines aren't perfect. We may well be well above the support line tomorrow. I might comfort myself that way. But then, there's this Scopelliti guy publishing this stuff.

32) Again, imagine the Dornsife people, and their LA Times masters, actually watching. Imagine them saying, WE MUST NOT LET TRUMP rise OVER his now happily broken support line! Besides, we do not enjoy showing up in our pajamas, having left our Belair pajama parties.

33) Let's turn serious again. Let's imagine that Dornsife is simply spot on. They had a glitch in their computers, who wouldn't be able to relate to that, and their data is 100% honest, right? What do we do with that?

34) First, we grant that Trump has, for the moment, lost the COVID issue. We grant that the Democrats knew they had Woodward in their corner, and they knew they'd once again take charge over the COVID conversation. More, they knew they'd land a body blow with Woodward.

35) So, we take a step back and ask ourselves, where are we really? The answer is, shockingly, exactly where we want ourselves to be. That is, from a position of unstoppable strength, we have regained the...wait for it...UNDERDOG'S ADVANTAGE.

36) We can always trot out the very truth, that we managed the COVID Crisis as well as it could possibly have been managed, and our man Trump always does so, at every possible moment. We're good there. But, better still, the entire polling apparatus is lying.

37) So, what we do is this. We imagine that we're about to fall lower, before we find our bottom, and rise again. But, we do NOT imagine that our bottom is actually below Biden's high. We imagine we're actually substantially ahead, and they're lying about every damned thing.

38) What's our stance, our posture? Underrated winners. We who come from a falsely perceived behind, to clobber our way to a massive, and once again, completely unpredicted victory. And we fight for every inch. What's an inch?

39) An inch is every number on every chart. If we break a support line, no matter how the great and the mighty may have corrupted that line, we'll care. We come out with confidence, but with 100% attention to detail. We fight for every vote, every last one of them.

40) And we pretend that Dornsife, and all the others might actually be right. We fight forward from there. It's understandable. The MAGA Movement has always been the movement of the Forgotten Americans. We remind them, they're about to be forgotten again.

Thread actually ends at #40.

11 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Nineteenth Analysis

11 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis At BTL, Data Can Always Change Everything! I can't tell you how excited I am about today's data. Wow! If you've been following, you know I hope to break my theory that they've turned the method in a bad way. Well...

2) Well, they have a chance in coming days to prove me wrong. It will bo SO easy. All they have to do is allow one trend, the other, or both to get into the Area of Insignificance. Let me explain that a bit more.

3) If you recall, my sad theory is that they're manipulating the data, to keep Biden above and Trump below the Area of Insignificance (AOI). If their data gets close to, but bounces away from the AOI for both parties, I'm just not going to be able to buy that for long.

4) Please mind, I do NOT require that they let Trump get over Biden, or have Biden fall below Trump. I'm not yet sure where I believe the two to be (I'll soon start forming that opinion). And if Biden is going to win, I want Dornsife to predict it rightly.

5) But, if my theory continues to hold through several more tests, then I'll near actual conclusion. Till then, I'm rooting for you Dornsife! Show us your integrity!! New Topic: There's some very interesting stuff we can now see which I'll show you next.

6) I have two new charts to share. This one is Biden's. I've pulled his numbers out and simply charted them all by themselves so we can focus on his campaign compared solely to itself. And yes, we now have a trend to follow!

7) With fresh data, you have to wait for a few cycles to come in, before any potential trends show up. I could NOT have drawn this chart yesterday, as the possible resistance line did not have enough "tests." To propose a line, at all, I live by the principle of three tests.

8) A test is just when the data changes directions. It's a pretty simple idea. You can't draw a good line without 3 tests, and then, afterward, you can watch to see if there are further tests that confirm the trend you're calling for of if the data breaks the line. Exciting!

9) Last point on tests. The more your line is tested and NOT broken, the more confidence you can have in the trend you've called. And that's strengthened if BOTH your support and resistance lines are tested multiple times. Now let's take a look at Trump all by himself.

10) Before we look more closely, let's back up and just look at the two campaigns and the AOI again. It's important to remember that Dornsife has Biden with a very nice and stable lead. But you can see that they have the race narrowing for the moment, yes?

11) As a Trump supporter, myself, I have to confess, I really love this chart. It is so familiar to me from 2016. He's got a steeply rising support line. A slightly more steeply rising resistance line. Which makes for a wide open, but clearly and strongly rising range. Heaven.

12) To my Democratic friends I am honestly giving you a data-driven warning. Trump is simply the most dangerous opponent, especially if you think he's weak when he's actually strong. This chart shows you exactly how Trump operates.

13) He pulls in, and extracts out, all the negative hits he can, and he works hard to get those hits through their news cycles, not worrying about speed, or velocity. He always has a secret weapon in the hiding, and his timing against the news cycle is just deadly.

14) One more time now, let's look again at Biden's chart. Look very closely. Yes, he's way above Trump, and I'm telling my Democratic friends, such things can lull you more than you may realize. It's an early trend, brand new. I am not massively confident in it yet.

15) But let's pretend these lines are right for a moment. Support is gently rising, that's good. Resistance is falling a bit more steeply. If we extend the lines forward, and if they remain unbroken, they become a flag formation, wide at the beginning, narrow at the end until...

16) By definition, flag formations must close out, unless they break to the up or down side first. By the end, there's nothing else that can happen, so we know they'll break. The geometry is simple. The steeper the down trend of the flag, the more likely to break below.

17) The more even the flag, the harder to predict, and those are the exciting, dramatic ones! And of course, the higher the rise of the flag, the more likely to break to the upside. Mind, these are NOT laws. The technical term for them is heuristics. Rules of thumb, if you will.

18) So, as a Democrat view this chart, I'm thinking, we really need to break to its upside, and as soon as possible. What's more, I'd be yelling at campaign management like so. You guys are always counting on Trump's errors to be your advantages, and they often are. But...

19) The other side has real reason to believe he's teflon. Nothing ever seems to stick against him for long. We keep eating our Trump-error deserts and getting our sugar highs. He seems always to have the next rich entree to pull himself up and not lose. We MUST be careful.

Temporary real life work interruption. Will be back soon as can...

20) Back again. Where was I? Oh yeah, Democratic Campaign Leadership DO NOT GET COMFY! Trump loves nothing more than to take it to the limit, and pull out a hail Mary pass with 7 seconds left on the clock. Let's play with this a little more.

21) Let's pretend Democratic Leadership actually listens and says, okay smarty pants, what do you recommend we actually do? Simple, we tell them. We've been doing much better forcing our man to speak coherently. Please. Listen. You have done well. Okay. But, COHERENCE. Key idea.

22) He MUST NOT revert to previous INCOHERENCE. If he does, he WILL LOSE. America will NOT elect an incoherent president. Not going to happen. And, hear now, you all thought Trump was incoherent because he said things you don't respect. You were always wrong about that.

23) We must admit that Trump is the stronger contender, Biden the weaker. Forget our lead. We HAVE to face that, and if Trump can make Biden lose coherence, we'll lose. That is our real threat. But let's get back to what you're doing so very well right now.

24) You've slowed him down, giving him time to find the right word. The COVID Crisis has been a Godsend, giving him time to warm up on camera from his home. That was awesome. You were a little slow picking up that it was time to move on, but that's of little matter.

25) Assuming continued coherence, our next step is a softening. All this anger at Trump he's always yammering about speaks to some of our people, and it's okay. But, he doesn't look like a winner when he's doing it. He looks like an angry old man, and with no power to back it up.

26) Rather than anger, it should be soft, kind, even, forgiving superiority, coming down from morally right truths to understand America's beloved son who fell astray, and ended up, so sadly, failing in his mission. You want to avoid works, though, like "failing in his mission."

27) You've also finally started doing much better with Biden's disavowal and rejection of violence and looting. Keep that up, and more and more and more support for police - we MUST disavow this defund the police thing, that's going to kill us.

28) Listen deeper, Democratic Leadership! Everything we've been talking about is absolutely defense, and none of it is offense. You cannot win by defense alone. And attacking Trump is NOT offense. We need to take this to the next level. We MUST present a positive message, too.

29) Oh, before we go there, I don't support Build Back Better. It's just defensive as well. Who's the subject of that slogan? Trump is. You're saying, We're going to build back better than Trump did. In this, you unwittingly laud Trump for building at all. That doesn't work.

30) I don't know if this works, probably not, but it's illustrative. Remember I Like Ike? Well... How about, I Like Joe? Think about it.

31) Whether you like that idea or not, it illustrates what I'm getting at. By pitching Joe as a great guy, and how do you not like Joe?, we dominate the conversation. Then, we HAVE to have substance, substantive programs and visions for a better America.

32) I don't have all this worked out, yet. But, I'm thinking something like the WPA, FDR's Works Project Administration. EVERYONE loved that. We can tell young people to ask their grandparents if they remember it, and what they thought about it?

33) And, we can talk about Eisenhower's Interstate Highways. We can throw a dig at Trump over NOT fixing them, but rapidly come back to how we will. We'll fill the potholes that Trump never cared about. Now that's campaigning. Got it guys

34) Out or role play, allow me to apologize if I lost you in there, anywhere. Remember, I do NOT support Biden, I do support Trump. But the numbers are the numbers. Everything I wrote above comes directly from Dornsife's numbers. As I read them.

35) Last point for today. I hope you'll work hard with me to understand this method, and learn to employ it yourself. The numbers as I chart them are called Technical Analysis. The moment I complete that, I immediately move into something called Fundamental Analysis.

36) The two terms are easy to understand. Technical = What? As shown by numbers on charts. Fundamental = Why? As shown by connection to what's going in the real world. This is the context that drives the numbers, but which must always be corrected by the numbers themselves.

37) It's my strong opinion that the separation of the two, when engaged, is always foolish. I believe that no one should be ONLY a Technical, or ONLY a Fundamental analyst. Everyone should be both. That's what I want for you.

38) Also, as you might have noticed, I am trying to weaken your belief that you, us, our side, ONLY us have any reason for being. I want you to see the other side - whichever is other to you - as having their own justification. They're not stupid. They have good reasons.

39) Massive Trump supporter as I am, I do understand why others support Biden. And, I do not dismiss or reject them, and you shouldn't either. We must embrace them as fellow Americans. We must get over this damned divide. Think about the Southern Generals' statues.

40) At the end of the Civil War, there were no trials for Rebel captives. They were released. Reconstruction does not deserve its bad reputation. It was needed. We need it, and reconciliation now. Not racially, I don't believe that. Politically. We need reconciliation.

41) For that reason, as much as any other, I want you to learn my arts and sciences, here, both Technical and Fundamental Analysis of voter polling data. Just one level deeper on that point...

42) I draw really, really good lines. They're strong. They look like truth the moment you see them. But, they're NOT guaranteed of being right. I often draw many lines before I accept one to stand. And even still, it may be a wrongful line. Or, just not as good as another.

43) If you learn to draw your own lines, you can challenge mine. Oh how I'd LOVE that! I don't need my lines - or yours - to be right. I just need them to be honest. Mine always are, I promise. I ONLY draw honest lines. As such, if you give me a better line, I will say so!

44) I brag, my lines are hard to defeat. I am really good at this. Ah, but my Fundamental Analysis? It's strong too, of course. But, if you draw your own lines, and then, have a different, contending Fundamental Analysis to hit me with... That's more than heaven for me.

45) The goal here is ONLY to get to the truth. It is our end. All our means must be justified by it, and it alone. No means is justified if it fails to draw us nearer the truth. Period. Come on! Join me. Head over here:

Thread ends at #45.