13 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis For those paying careful attention to my charts, you'll note that I've chosen to use Biden's support line, and Trump's resistance in laying out today's data. This shows the same data in a slightly different light.
2) Before we talk about that, let's look at each of the candidate's charts first.
3) You have to be careful with how you observe. When placed side by side, due to the scale for each image, it makes them look far closer to each other than the Dornsife numbers indicate. It's okay to look at them side by side, but please remember the scale differences.
3) Qualifiers in mind, the texture and feel of the two formations are starting to speak a bit more loudly. Don't know if these forms will soon change or if they'll continue. What I mapped out today for each was its possible continuation.
4) My ambivalence over the truth of Dornsife's numbers this year is wearing on me, and I can feel that when I do my analysis. By the way, I do NOT at the moment, plan to do a Dornsife analysis every day going forward. I will keep my eye on it, and decide randomly.
5) I am fighting my emotions. What if these Dornsife numbers really do reflect America, today? If they do, Trump is going to have to pull a strategic rabbit out of his hat, and completely alter the dynamic of the race. When current trends are projected, Biden's still on top.
6) I do have one suggestion. Let the COVID thing spin itself out. Take the heat and don't come back swinging too hard. This is one to NOT infuse your fighting spirit into. It's more of a let it go thing. Let the Democrats have this tool, and let them use it. Don't buy in.
7) For Team Biden, I do say kudos. You're clarifying your attack, and gaining in defining him, and thereby taking the dominant position from which you may attack further. Also, great work on timing your COVID message with Woodward's book release.
8) As always I caution against any one strategy, alone, and of course against overconfidence. But underconfidence can be deadly too. So, be policy for you is to keep up the COVID attack, and try to pull Trump into a response mode. You want him angry, and not thinking clearly.
9) Last point, one spear is good, two spears are better. You have to be careful though, it needs to penetrate. With all your massive assets, a two spear approach would give you what you need, ONLY if it is the right second spear. I honestly don't know what that might be.
10) Democratic counsel ended at #9. We turn now the different light that today's numbers' presentation shines. Let's put that chart back up again, here. Here's what I see, or should I say smell? I still smell a rat, friends, and I don't like it.
11) I see Biden's support line tracking at almost a perfect parallel to the Insignificance Range's (IR) high. Trump's support, going as it is, will never cross into the IR's lower limit. If Trump doesn't break to the down side of his support, that support is also parallel...ish.
12) Try to picture the lower limit of the IR running gently upward from 43 to about 44.5 or so as you look again at Trump's chart for today. Tell you what. I'm going to go draw another chart to represent that for you, clearly...
13) Look slowly. Trump's support line is easy to read on the bottom. His resistance line intersects with the IR projection around 28 September. Ah, but the IR line and his support line do NOT meet by 3 November. Linger with that.
14) And right now, Dornsife has Trump playing with his support line, no where near his resistance line, and very likely to break support, dropping out this channel and building a new downward formation. Again, go slowly and try to imagine the data rolling in, and forward.
15) If all of that is accurate it means this. The election was over the moment Dornsife started tracking data. Biden was over the high limit of the IR line, from day 1 forward, and Trump below it from day 1 forward as well. Looking at all this, it was over before it started.
16) So, move along folks. There's really nothing here to watch. Biden is a foregone conclusion, never in dispute in any way. Hell, if you're a Trump supporter, you might not even need to vote at all, why waste your time. That's the rat I'm smelling.
17) If next week goes well, BTL will be able to start posting real data, and making our own projections. Understand, I won't believe in my own data methods or projections until they have been severely tested. You will be a part of that testing, as from go moment, we will publish.
18) Before I let go, today, I have to restate my current theory of skepticism. Dornsife has changed almost every changeable feature, without simply having changed everything. My sad theory is that the LA Times forced these changes to support their agenda, not to find truth.
19) If I end up believing my theory, I'll change its category to that of proposition. I'm not 100% there yet, but this keeping all the data outside the Insignificance Area - if my theory is right - simply stinks to high heaven. I'll say it again, I want to be wrong. Sincerely.
20) In the meantime, by all means, please head over to our poll and take it. And introduce it to everyone you know. If we can build a truly honest poll, that will absolutely matter. Please help us, and head over there right now!
Thread ends at #20.