27 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Thirty-fourth Analysis
27 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis New Data. New Lines. New Methods! Before we discuss our new data, I have two wonderful friends to thank for their guidance: @teddyspeedboat and @JohnBasham. They both told me the technology was no challenge, and were right!
2) So what you see above are the first support and resistance lines I have ever drawn, using Excel's SO SIMPLE line drawing tool. I feel like such an idiot. It was more than just simple, it was FAR easier than drawing those lines by hand. Wow! Thanks my friends!!!
3) Also before discussing the meaning of the chart and its clear support and resistance lines, let's discuss the data itself, its strengths and limitations, limitations first. As you can see, I am only able to present my data in weekly chunks, as I don't get enough data each day.
4) This leads me, for the first time, to discuss cash. I've received, so far, $2,500 to get off the ground. I've invested another $6,000 or so on my own. I have a couple of team members who are also invested at about $1,000. I know, small sums all, but important.
5) We could make the move to daily tracking, and strengthen our overall data basis between now and the election with another $4,000, if we can raise it. I may end up investing that much more, myself...if I have to. Ah, but! There's another project to discuss!!!
6) What if BTL could do a Battle Ground State's Analysis? Here are the states @KateScopelliti selected for our focus: 1) Ohio 2) Florida 3) Georgia 4) Wisconsin 5) Michigan 6) Pennsylvania 7) North Carolina 8) Virginia 9) Arizona 10) Nevada 11) Texas 12) Minnesota
7) We have learned how to find participants who will vote their hearts from both sides of the camp, Biden and Trump supporters, in specified areas, zip codes, actually, neighborhoods, even. I'll discuss that more below, relative to today's chart.
8) Our Battle Ground States effort will likely cost, assuming we can raise it, about $6,000. I emphasize how we have lowered the cost of entry into solid, honest polling with NO agenda. We really have learned how to do it. So yes, I am absolutely asking. Know anyone?
9) On the chance you might, anyone can reach me here, at Twitter, by DMing me. Or, my email address is: Pasquale@TheConsigliori.com I have never been more dedicated to anything than the discovery of the truth in polling. Please check us out at:
10 Now, let's dive into the chart, with its brand new, Excel employed, support and resistance lines! Trump's resistance still points to victory. Biden's support still points to defeat.
11) Our BTL data has Trump at 71.7% probability of victory, which is his lowest number in our survey to date. And, we have Biden at 28.3%, his highest number to date. Please, let us be clear. We are NOT claiming to be right. We publish our weaknesses every time we release data.
12) Perhaps, my greatest claim of all is to mere plausibility. The failure of the the polling industry in 2016, which I do have the honor to have called out, accurately, inspires and emboldens me to put forward that our data may be better than theirs, weak as it may be.
13) Now, let's pretend. Let's pretend that our BTL data is actually correct. How in the world could that possibly be? Here is my answer. Biden is actually a weaker candidate that was Clinton2. And socialism is no winning strategy in America in 2020. There's more.
14) Put a lid on it? Are you kidding? This is even worse than Clinton2's strategy of assuming victory. And Biden is less credible putting his lid on at 9:00 am than she was. But more, far more.
15) I wrote a book, together with my wife the amazing @KateScopelliti, called America First: The MAGA Manifesto. It has a foreword by @GenFlynn. We presented the actual basis of the MAGA Movement. Please do consider it: amazon.com/America-First-…
16) And this my real point. Trump has a plan. He has a philosophy. His mission is 100% clear. Biden has a mandate, from those who drive him. He has no philosophy, no clear agenda, unless, you count the Communist Manifesto and the Green New Deal.
17) We must flip the other way. What if our Democratic friends are right? What if my data is only the result of my sample-biased reach? Then, I'm wrong. Biden will easily win. If so, why?
18) If Biden wins, it will be because we, the MAGA Movement, have failed to persuade that our vision of America is right. We will have failed to stand behind our leader, and give him the support he requires to win his 2nd term. That, my friends, will be on us.
19) I know, I talked about money above, a forbidden topic. Yet, I stand where I am. I ask honest questions, and only want want honest answers. Those I have so far call for a massive Trump victory. If that's not going to happen, then I want to know in advance.
20) So, regardless of where you stand, at least come and vote at my truly neutral poll. Your vote will count. I say, if nothing else, we need to get this election right. We need to know the truth. That's what polling is for.
Thread ends at #20.