11 September #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis At BTL, Data Can Always Change Everything! I can't tell you how excited I am about today's data. Wow! If you've been following, you know I hope to break my theory that they've turned the method in a bad way. Well...
2) Well, they have a chance in coming days to prove me wrong. It will bo SO easy. All they have to do is allow one trend, the other, or both to get into the Area of Insignificance. Let me explain that a bit more.
3) If you recall, my sad theory is that they're manipulating the data, to keep Biden above and Trump below the Area of Insignificance (AOI). If their data gets close to, but bounces away from the AOI for both parties, I'm just not going to be able to buy that for long.
4) Please mind, I do NOT require that they let Trump get over Biden, or have Biden fall below Trump. I'm not yet sure where I believe the two to be (I'll soon start forming that opinion). And if Biden is going to win, I want Dornsife to predict it rightly.
5) But, if my theory continues to hold through several more tests, then I'll near actual conclusion. Till then, I'm rooting for you Dornsife! Show us your integrity!! New Topic: There's some very interesting stuff we can now see which I'll show you next.
6) I have two new charts to share. This one is Biden's. I've pulled his numbers out and simply charted them all by themselves so we can focus on his campaign compared solely to itself. And yes, we now have a trend to follow!
7) With fresh data, you have to wait for a few cycles to come in, before any potential trends show up. I could NOT have drawn this chart yesterday, as the possible resistance line did not have enough "tests." To propose a line, at all, I live by the principle of three tests.
8) A test is just when the data changes directions. It's a pretty simple idea. You can't draw a good line without 3 tests, and then, afterward, you can watch to see if there are further tests that confirm the trend you're calling for of if the data breaks the line. Exciting!
9) Last point on tests. The more your line is tested and NOT broken, the more confidence you can have in the trend you've called. And that's strengthened if BOTH your support and resistance lines are tested multiple times. Now let's take a look at Trump all by himself.
10) Before we look more closely, let's back up and just look at the two campaigns and the AOI again. It's important to remember that Dornsife has Biden with a very nice and stable lead. But you can see that they have the race narrowing for the moment, yes?
11) As a Trump supporter, myself, I have to confess, I really love this chart. It is so familiar to me from 2016. He's got a steeply rising support line. A slightly more steeply rising resistance line. Which makes for a wide open, but clearly and strongly rising range. Heaven.
12) To my Democratic friends I am honestly giving you a data-driven warning. Trump is simply the most dangerous opponent, especially if you think he's weak when he's actually strong. This chart shows you exactly how Trump operates.
13) He pulls in, and extracts out, all the negative hits he can, and he works hard to get those hits through their news cycles, not worrying about speed, or velocity. He always has a secret weapon in the hiding, and his timing against the news cycle is just deadly.
14) One more time now, let's look again at Biden's chart. Look very closely. Yes, he's way above Trump, and I'm telling my Democratic friends, such things can lull you more than you may realize. It's an early trend, brand new. I am not massively confident in it yet.
15) But let's pretend these lines are right for a moment. Support is gently rising, that's good. Resistance is falling a bit more steeply. If we extend the lines forward, and if they remain unbroken, they become a flag formation, wide at the beginning, narrow at the end until...
16) By definition, flag formations must close out, unless they break to the up or down side first. By the end, there's nothing else that can happen, so we know they'll break. The geometry is simple. The steeper the down trend of the flag, the more likely to break below.
17) The more even the flag, the harder to predict, and those are the exciting, dramatic ones! And of course, the higher the rise of the flag, the more likely to break to the upside. Mind, these are NOT laws. The technical term for them is heuristics. Rules of thumb, if you will.
18) So, as a Democrat view this chart, I'm thinking, we really need to break to its upside, and as soon as possible. What's more, I'd be yelling at campaign management like so. You guys are always counting on Trump's errors to be your advantages, and they often are. But...
19) The other side has real reason to believe he's teflon. Nothing ever seems to stick against him for long. We keep eating our Trump-error deserts and getting our sugar highs. He seems always to have the next rich entree to pull himself up and not lose. We MUST be careful.
Temporary real life work interruption. Will be back soon as can...
20) Back again. Where was I? Oh yeah, Democratic Campaign Leadership DO NOT GET COMFY! Trump loves nothing more than to take it to the limit, and pull out a hail Mary pass with 7 seconds left on the clock. Let's play with this a little more.
21) Let's pretend Democratic Leadership actually listens and says, okay smarty pants, what do you recommend we actually do? Simple, we tell them. We've been doing much better forcing our man to speak coherently. Please. Listen. You have done well. Okay. But, COHERENCE. Key idea.
22) He MUST NOT revert to previous INCOHERENCE. If he does, he WILL LOSE. America will NOT elect an incoherent president. Not going to happen. And, hear now, you all thought Trump was incoherent because he said things you don't respect. You were always wrong about that.
23) We must admit that Trump is the stronger contender, Biden the weaker. Forget our lead. We HAVE to face that, and if Trump can make Biden lose coherence, we'll lose. That is our real threat. But let's get back to what you're doing so very well right now.
24) You've slowed him down, giving him time to find the right word. The COVID Crisis has been a Godsend, giving him time to warm up on camera from his home. That was awesome. You were a little slow picking up that it was time to move on, but that's of little matter.
25) Assuming continued coherence, our next step is a softening. All this anger at Trump he's always yammering about speaks to some of our people, and it's okay. But, he doesn't look like a winner when he's doing it. He looks like an angry old man, and with no power to back it up.
26) Rather than anger, it should be soft, kind, even, forgiving superiority, coming down from morally right truths to understand America's beloved son who fell astray, and ended up, so sadly, failing in his mission. You want to avoid works, though, like "failing in his mission."
27) You've also finally started doing much better with Biden's disavowal and rejection of violence and looting. Keep that up, and more and more and more support for police - we MUST disavow this defund the police thing, that's going to kill us.
28) Listen deeper, Democratic Leadership! Everything we've been talking about is absolutely defense, and none of it is offense. You cannot win by defense alone. And attacking Trump is NOT offense. We need to take this to the next level. We MUST present a positive message, too.
29) Oh, before we go there, I don't support Build Back Better. It's just defensive as well. Who's the subject of that slogan? Trump is. You're saying, We're going to build back better than Trump did. In this, you unwittingly laud Trump for building at all. That doesn't work.
30) I don't know if this works, probably not, but it's illustrative. Remember I Like Ike? Well... How about, I Like Joe? Think about it.
31) Whether you like that idea or not, it illustrates what I'm getting at. By pitching Joe as a great guy, and how do you not like Joe?, we dominate the conversation. Then, we HAVE to have substance, substantive programs and visions for a better America.
32) I don't have all this worked out, yet. But, I'm thinking something like the WPA, FDR's Works Project Administration. EVERYONE loved that. We can tell young people to ask their grandparents if they remember it, and what they thought about it?
33) And, we can talk about Eisenhower's Interstate Highways. We can throw a dig at Trump over NOT fixing them, but rapidly come back to how we will. We'll fill the potholes that Trump never cared about. Now that's campaigning. Got it guys
34) Out or role play, allow me to apologize if I lost you in there, anywhere. Remember, I do NOT support Biden, I do support Trump. But the numbers are the numbers. Everything I wrote above comes directly from Dornsife's numbers. As I read them.
35) Last point for today. I hope you'll work hard with me to understand this method, and learn to employ it yourself. The numbers as I chart them are called Technical Analysis. The moment I complete that, I immediately move into something called Fundamental Analysis.
36) The two terms are easy to understand. Technical = What? As shown by numbers on charts. Fundamental = Why? As shown by connection to what's going in the real world. This is the context that drives the numbers, but which must always be corrected by the numbers themselves.
37) It's my strong opinion that the separation of the two, when engaged, is always foolish. I believe that no one should be ONLY a Technical, or ONLY a Fundamental analyst. Everyone should be both. That's what I want for you.
38) Also, as you might have noticed, I am trying to weaken your belief that you, us, our side, ONLY us have any reason for being. I want you to see the other side - whichever is other to you - as having their own justification. They're not stupid. They have good reasons.
39) Massive Trump supporter as I am, I do understand why others support Biden. And, I do not dismiss or reject them, and you shouldn't either. We must embrace them as fellow Americans. We must get over this damned divide. Think about the Southern Generals' statues.
40) At the end of the Civil War, there were no trials for Rebel captives. They were released. Reconstruction does not deserve its bad reputation. It was needed. We need it, and reconciliation now. Not racially, I don't believe that. Politically. We need reconciliation.
41) For that reason, as much as any other, I want you to learn my arts and sciences, here, both Technical and Fundamental Analysis of voter polling data. Just one level deeper on that point...
42) I draw really, really good lines. They're strong. They look like truth the moment you see them. But, they're NOT guaranteed of being right. I often draw many lines before I accept one to stand. And even still, it may be a wrongful line. Or, just not as good as another.
43) If you learn to draw your own lines, you can challenge mine. Oh how I'd LOVE that! I don't need my lines - or yours - to be right. I just need them to be honest. Mine always are, I promise. I ONLY draw honest lines. As such, if you give me a better line, I will say so!
44) I brag, my lines are hard to defeat. I am really good at this. Ah, but my Fundamental Analysis? It's strong too, of course. But, if you draw your own lines, and then, have a different, contending Fundamental Analysis to hit me with... That's more than heaven for me.
45) The goal here is ONLY to get to the truth. It is our end. All our means must be justified by it, and it alone. No means is justified if it fails to draw us nearer the truth. Period. Come on! Join me. Head over here:
Thread ends at #45.